EU Recession On Sight

Published by Filipe R. Costa on Fri, 21/09/2012 - 15:01
recession

Daily Market Commentary for September 21: PMI data for Europe led markets down during yesterday’s morning but they recovered well during afternoon after the Philly Fed index decreased less than expected. Investors show some concern but don’t want to miss a possible rally.

Conditions in Europe continue to deteriorate as shown by PMI indices published yesterday that point not only to a slowing in economic activity but also to a widening between country performance as Germany is improving while France is deteriorating quickly. Concerns over the European situation are rising again as investors are anxiously waiting for some ECB intervention that is only possible after a country commits to a bailout or, at least, to tough conditionality. As Spain is delaying a bailout, investors stopped buying the Euro since Monday and adopted a wait-and-see approach. Rumours point to Spain asking for a full bailout as soon as next week but a rising social unrest may weight on Mr. Rajoy’s intentions.

For now markets are in buy mode in the US, but not in the UK. While the S&P 500 is currently trading at 1,465.1, or 0.33% higher, the FTSE is trading at 5,811 slightly negative.

Name Last price Close Price % 5-Day % YTD %
Nasdaq 100 Index 20/09/2012 2861.7 -0.08 1.07 25.63
DAX (Xetra) 20/09/2012 7389.49 -0.02 1.08 25.28
S&P 500 20/09/2012 1460.26 -0.05 0.02 16.11
Gold (LBM) $ 20/09/2012 176270 -0.56 1.68 12.5
Dow Jones Industrial Average 20/09/2012 13596.9 0.14 0.42 11.29
CAC 40 20/09/2012 3509.92 -0.62 0.22 11.08
Nikkei 225 20/09/2012 9087 -1.57 1.02 7.47
FTSE 100 20/09/2012 5854.64 -0.57 0.6 5.07
FTSE MIB 20/09/2012 15830.25 -1.68 -2.55 4.91
GBP/USD - US $ per £ 20/09/2012 1.6222 -0.06 0.43 4.46
EUR/USD - US$ per Euro 20/09/2012 1.2975 -0.64 -0.14 0.16
EUR/GBP - £ per Euro 20/09/2012 0.7998 -0.57 -0.57 -4.01
Crude oil (Light Sweet) Composite 20/09/2012 9281 0.71 -5.47 -6.25
IBEX 35 20/09/2012 8022.1 -0.95 1.09 -6.35